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odds of a tropical storm while cruising BVI?
 
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Twanger
Link to this postPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 5:27 pm    Post subject: Note odds of a tropical storm while cruising BVI?

So another thread got me thinking... what are the actual odds of having a tropical storm, a named storm, during your 1-2 week trip to the BVI?

Hurricane season in the Atlantic, as defined by NOAA, begins June 1st and ends November 30th.

I've been cruising the Leewards and Windwards for almost 30 years, mostly in hurricane season, and have never had the misfortune to encounter a named tropical storm.

Tropical wave? Yes. Snotty weather? Yes.
But nothing named.

We don't cruise all that much.
Usually one 7-14 day trip a year, and a few years we missed when the kids were in college.

So that's no named storms in maybe 7 solid months of cruising the islands in hurricane season.
Looks like I'm building up some odds against me.... Mr. Green hairy

It would be interesting to figure the actual odds of a named-storm strike in the BVI. I'm betting it's about 1% per week in hurricane season, but I don't have anything tangible to back that up except for one plot, which is the number of hurricanes and tropical storms that occur in the entire Atlantic per 100 years.

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Twanger
Link to this postPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 5:35 pm    

I just did a little digging and found this neat site:

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/KSTT_weekly.htm

Some pretty cool statistics.

So doing some pretty sloppy math...

Each week in Hurricane season it looks like on average 3 storms passed within 60 miles of St. Thomas in the period from 1851 to 2010. Call it 150 years.

So in any given week that's on average 1 storm per 50 years, or about 2% chance in any given week.

I'd guessed 1%, so hey, not far off.
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kegoangoango
Link to this postPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:43 pm    

It's very good data, Twanger. However, 60 miles isn't far enough away in some cases when sailing/boating (IMHO). I recall in Oct 2011 we were on Nevis and a TS (can't remember the name) parked itself N or NNE off of PR ( a couple hundred miles away). Nevis received an average *annual* rain fall during the week we were there (still enjoyed our trip) and closed all of the ferry's to St. Kitts from Monday to Friday. We left on Friday (a day early) to make sure we could catch our flight from St. Kitts on Saturday.

In my 23 years of land-lubbing the Caribbean in Oct., we've only had three that were negatively affected by a TS/H - 1995 (There were two almost back to back, Luis and Marilyn) had us changing islands twice before we arrived, 2011 (already mentioned) and last year with Rafael. That's 3 out of 23 (not really a long time climatically speaking) or around 13%.

I agree the odds are low, really anytime - they're just greater than 0% compared to January, for example. However, naturally (and I know you agree with this) if you're sailing/boating in the VIs you always need to keep a wary eye out and be prepared to high-tail it back to base.

BTW, nice find! I added it to my favorites!
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Capndar
Link to this postPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:21 pm    Post subject: Note To me this chart is even more relavant

how did you insert that chart?
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Twanger
Link to this postPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 9:50 pm    

Find an image on the web and copy the URL.
(right click on an image and select copy location)
Then hit reply to the previous message and hit the Img button on the toolbar.
Then paste the URL in.

That's it!
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